PAKISTAN READER

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PML-N on the verge of solidifying its majority in federal and Punjab assemblies

In Brief
PAKISTAN ELECTIONS 2024
PR Exclusive Update #68
PML-N on the verge of solidifying its majority in federal and Punjab assemblies
On 14 February, The Express Tribune reported that the PML-N is on the verge of solidifying its majority in both the federal and Punjab assemblies,thereby furthering its status as a dominant political entity in the country’s political landscape. It is backed by PPP, PML-Q, MQM and other independents. Currently, these parties collectively hold 159 general seats in the National Assembly- the PML-N holds 82 seats, the PPP has 54 seats, the MQM has 17, the PML-Q has 3, and the IPP and BAP have 2 and 1 seats respectively.This also includes seven independents. Efforts to secure reserved seats for women and minorities could potentially boost the coalition’s strength to 202 members which is more than a simple majority of 169 needed in the National Assembly. In Punjab, where government formation requires 186 seats, the PML-N, with 151 seats and potential support from independents, is poised to secure 33 out of 66 reserved seats for women and 4 minority seats, reaching a total of 188 members. With support from the PPP, PML-Q, and IPP, the coalition’s strength in the Punjab Assembly could rise to 214 members. (Waqas Ahmed, “PML-N on the cusp of forming govts,” The Express Tribune, 14 February 2024)

PML-N gains more lawmakers
On 14 February, TheExpress Tribune reported that a total of nine newly-elected members have joined the PML-N. Six Punjab MPAs-elect including Sultan Bajwa, Shazia Tareen, Mahmood Qadir, Hanif Patafi, Taimur Lali, and Ali Afghan joined PML-N along with one independent who won the National Assembly seat from Punjab.  Maryam Nawaz Sharif chaired the meeting where she expressed gratitude and highlighted steering Punjab towards prosperity. Additionally, three independent lawmakers from Khanewal, Raza Hayat Hiraj, Akbar Hayat Hiraj, and Asghar Hayat Hiraj, also joined PML-N in a meeting with Shehbaz Sharif. They pledged commitment to PML-N’s vision. Shehbaz Sharif thanked them, stressing unity to tackle challenges. (“Nine newly-elected independent lawmakers join PML-N,” The Express Tribune, 14 February 2024)
 
Editorial in Dawn describes PDM as “ragtag bunch of patriotic politicians”
On 15 February, an editorial in Dawn titled “Staged show” said that after Pakistan “barely survived the trailer,” the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) 2.0 has a “full five-year show” penned for them. However, not much has changed or improved, as the PML-N will “once again take the lead” with Shehbaz Sharif, and the PPP would remain “content” with its “supporting role.” The editorial also cited the MQM, PML-Q, BAP, and familiar faces from the IPP as “usual favorites.With these “ragtag bunch of patriotic politicians,” the PDM would resume “saving” Pakistan, although it had failed the last time. Their revival will be a disappointment for both “PTI sympathizers” vying for a change, and for PML-N supporters who were told that Nawaz Sharif would secure his fourth term as the prime minister. While acknowledging that Nawaz’s campaign was not too large because he was not the “preferred choice,” the editorial questioned why he “did not refuse to play it once it became clear he was being manipulated” based on the manner in which his election victory was announced. The fact that he gave the government to Shehbaz Sharif was, as per the editorial, a “sad reminder of all that he had achieved” and lost. Nonetheless, he ensured that Maryam Nawaz would get a “head start” as she is set to become the chief minister of Punjab. The editorial also touched upon the “astute” PPP, which could gain constitutional posts even though it refused to “carry the PML-N’s baggage.” Further, just like last time, the PDM will probably have an “obscenely bloated cabinet” in an effort to accommodate other parties. The editorial concludes by questioning how the alliance would address the problems posing Pakistan while demonstrating stability to international lenders. (“Staged show,” Dawn, 15 February 2024)
 
Editorial in Dawn warns against reappointing Ishaq Dar as the finance minister
On 15 February, in an editorial in Dawn titled “Warning for the next PM,” Khurram Husain said that the first thing that the “incoming” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had to realize, regardless of the amount of pressure he may face, is that reappointing Ishaq Dar as the finance minister would be the “worst mistake.” Describing this decision as the “biggest disaster” of Sharif’s last stint, Husain pointed out the Dar “undermined” former Finance Minister Miftah Ismail, when Ismail was vying to finish a review of the IMF facility to prevent a “near imminent balance-of-payments disaster,” by derailing the understanding. Dar ended up being unable to deliver the promised exchange rate of one dollar for 200 rupees, and instead resumed Pakistan’s “march towards default.” Husain referred to Dar’s statement wherein he said in response to a question of what the IMF would have to say about Dar’s actions: “I don’t care! I don’t care if they come! I don’t have to plead before them!” This conversation, which happened in 2022 when talks with the IMF had “broken down,” was regarded by the editorial as the moment Dar’s “veil of civility dropped.” Husain clarified that his warning that Dar not be re-appointed was “disaster management,” because while Dar may know the business landscape and the “games that take place under the table,” it is more important for a finance minister to “understand the depth of change” required being economically sustainable. The editorial concludes with Husain asserting that since Dar knows how to operate the status quo but not change it, if Sharif were to make him finance minister, “his game will be over before it has even begun.” (Khurram Husain, “Warning for the next PM,” Dawn, 15 February 2024)
 
In Punjab, Maryam Nawaz set to become the first female chief minister
On 15 February, The News International reported that Maryam Nawaz is set to be the first female chief minister of Punjab, after she was nominated by her father and PML-N Nawaz Sharif for the post. Maryam Nawaz, also known as an “iron lady” was mentioned in the BBC’s report on the most influential women in the world in 2017. She is known for having adopted aggressive politics after the Panama Papers case which disqualified Nawaz Sharif from holding public office for life. She also endured multiple obstacles following the dismissal of the Sharif government in 1999, as she was placed under house arrest and exiled to Saudi Arabia. In 2013, she was put in charge of the Prime Minister’s Youth Program, under which she increased PML-N’s popularity among the youth by distributing laptops, giving out scholarships, and using social media to promote the party’s narrative. Nawaz had also been appreciated for her decision to serve her time in jail as an ordinary prisoner by refusing to take B-class facilities in 2018, when she was sentenced to seven years in jail and disqualified for ten years in the Avenfield reference. Despite her husband being arrested and her speeches being banned from being broadcast, Nawaz organized rallies, challenged the PTI, and was thus appointed as the party’s chief organizer and senior vice president. (Ali Raza, “Punjab crown to be set on head of first female CM,” The News International, 15 February 2024)
 
In Balochistan, the PPP plans coalition government
On 14 February, the PPP members, who have won in the recently concluded elections at the national and provincial level from Balochistan,announced plans to form a coalition government in the province. They also stated that the coalition will be led by a ‘jiyala’ chief minister. They emphasized the party’s majority position in the province as it had clinched 11 seats and was therefore well within its right to form the government. They revealed that talks for coalition formation with other parties are underway. They criticized opponents for use of harsh language and urged them to approach election tribunals against election related grievances. PPP leaders also condemned politicized hatred and defended their record of development and peace-building. They challenged critics to match their contributions to Balochistan’s welfare and pledged acceptance of tribunal decisions. (Saleem Shahid, “PPP set to form coalition govt in Balochistan,” Dawn, 15 February 2024)
 
IHC reserves verdict on PTI-backed candidates’ election result challenges
On 14 February,the Islamabad High Court reserved its verdict on petitions challenging Election Commission of Pakistan’s notifications for NA-46, 47, and 48 constituencies. Three PTI-backed candidates, Shoaib Shaheen, Ali Bukhari, and Aamir Mughal, had filed a petition citing irregularities and demanding notification nullification. Chief Justice Aamer Farooq, who was hearing the petition, questioned ECP’s actions and emphasized pending appeals’ priority. Petitioners argued for notification withdrawal due to alleged discrepancies. The court refrained from directing ECP but noted the issue’s gravity. Earlier, PTI candidates filed petitions on 11 February, alleging electoral process violations. They claimed forceful eviction from RO offices and contested announced results. The verdict is awaited. (“IHC reserves verdict on pleas challenging ECP notifications for capital seats,” The Express Tribune, 15 February 2024)
 
PTI’s chief ministerial pick for KP faces arrest amongst others in 9 May riots case
On 14 February, The Express Tribune reported that a plan has been put into motion to arrest those PTI leaders declared proclaimed offenders by the courts. A total of 22 PTI leaders and 282 activists had been declared proclaimed offenders by the courts for their alleged involvement in the May 9 incident. This includes PTI’s Ali Amin Gandapurwho was nominated by the party founder Imran Khan as the chief ministerial candidate for Balochistan. It is to be noted that on 30 September 2023, an anti-terrorism court (ATC) had declared Gandapur and eight other PTI leaders as proclaimed offenders in the case regarding attack on Lahore Jinnah’s House. The “arrest plan” will be put into action by the Lahore police in collaboration with a joint investigation team. The JIT revealed that the proclaimed offenders who contested in the recent elections were in constant touch with campaign activists and their supporters. This has helped them gather information about their whereabouts. Advanced techniques like geo-fencing and mobile tracking will be used. The Federal Investigation Agency’s assistance has also been enlisted to assist with locating the offenders. (“Chief ministerial pick Gandapur faces arrest,” The Express Tribune, 14 February 2024) 
 
JUI-F leader rejects election results, invites PML-N to opposition
On 14 February, addressing a press conference in Islamabad, JUI-F leader Fazlur Rehman rejected the results of the recently concluded elections, calling it ‘rigged.’ He argued that the election results demonstrated that bribes had been taken from both successful and unsuccessful candidates. He further stated that “Some were even given entire assemblies in exchange for money.” He invited PML-N’s Nawaz Sharif to join the opposition stating “I, therefore, invite the PML-N and Nawaz to come with us and sit in the opposition.” He refuted the Election Commission of Pakistan’s claim that the elections were free and fair. On the role of parliament, he stated “In the eyes of JUI-F, the Parliament has lost its importance and democracy is losing its case. It seems as if decisions will now be taken on the ground and not the Parliament.” He denied being subservient to PPP or PML-N and expressed conflict with PTI’s ideology. (“Fazlur Rehman rejects ‘rigged’ poll results, invites PML-N to join JUI-F on opposition benches,” Dawn, 14 February 2024)
 
The US describes Pakistan’s elections as “an internal matter”
On 14 February, the US State Department Spokesperson, Matthew Miller, emphasized that the US was looking forward to working with Pakistan’s new government, and said that efforts to form a coalition government were “ultimately an internal matter.” Miller said that in countries that have a parliamentary system where no party has a clear majority, coalitions are formed, and ultimately that was “not the decision for the US to make.” He added that whenever the US saw allegations “anywhere in the world,” including Pakistan, their response will always be to call for a thorough investigation. Earlier on 13 February, the White House said it was “proud to stand with likeminded democracies,” and had “consistently” conveyed to Pakistan that the “will of the Pakistani people” needed to be respected. (Wajid Ali Syed, “Coalition govt Pakistan’s internal matter; a norm in parliamentary system: US,” The News International, 15 February 2024)
 
JUDICIARY
CJP seeks “assurance” that army functions according to its mandate
On 14 February, the Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP), Qazi Faez Isa, led a three-judge bench and asked the federal government to ensure that the army placed its focus only on defense-related matters and not commercial businesses. In 2021, former CJP Gulzar Ahmed alleged that in Karachi, cantonment board lands were being used illegally for commercial gains under the guise of strategic purposes. Isa asked the Attorney General for Pakistan Mansoor Usman Awan for “assurance” that the military would work according to its mandate, as marriage halls had been set up on military lands. A counsel for the Evacuee’s Trust Property Board (EETB) said that the disputed land belonged to them, as the individual who was allocated the land sold it on fake papers, after which a building was constructed there. A judge on the bench questioned how the EETB was a bystander during the construction, while Isa noted that Karachi registry’s assets should be audited by the Federal Board of Revenue. (Nasir Iqbal, “CJP comes down hard on military’s businesses,” Dawn, 15 February 2024)

ECONOMY
ECC decision on gas tariff hike and other economic matters
On 14 February, in response to proposed gas tariff increases, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) declined a 40-66.67 per cent hike for protected domestic consumers, opting for a slight increase instead. The final approval rests with the federal cabinet. The fertilizer sector will absorb the impact of reduced tariffs for protected consumers. Non-protected domestic consumers face varied increases, with tariffs rising from five per cent to 66.67 per cent. CNG prices are set to increase to PKR 3,750 per MMBTU, Agritech and Fatima fertilizer gas prices have increased to PKR 1,597 per MMBTU while for fuel purposes, and their tariff has been increased to PKR 1,750 per MMBTU. Other ECC decisions include approving sales tax rationalization and additional funding for the Intelligence Bureau. The hike in tariff was done to meet the 15 February deadline set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for hiking the gas prices under a structural benchmark criterion. (Khalid Mustafa &Mehtab Haider, “Another hike in gas tariff approved on IMF diktat,” The News International, 15 February 2024)

The more I look at the current political landscape of Pakistan the more I get convinced that momentarily PTI and PPP should carve out a political solution for the people of Pakistan. It is better than any other hotch potch arrangement. Of course both should get corruption out of their systems and from Pakistan. -Syed A Hussain   The official "minimum wage" per month in Pakistan is 32000 PKR (114 USD). For a medical officer, who works 5 days a week, his/her salary adds up to 30000 PKR (108 USD). I find it ridiculous and infuriating that a skilled worker isn't even earning the minimum wage. -Jibran Ilyas   Poverty in Pakistan needs to be seen as a human rights violation. Those living below the poverty line are forced to work in an unsafe and unhealthy environment. -Shabir Januja

“The country was created in 1947, but it wouldn’t be wrong to argue that the nation was born on February 8, 2024.” -An opinion in The Express Tribune, ‘The birth of a nation’